Weather whiplash

Weather whiplash

cover crops near Nevada
Nice looking rye cover crop near Nevada, IA
November 2020

A big thank you to farmers who planted cover crops after this challenging year. Cover crops will hold soil and nutrients in place through the winter and early spring. That could be especially important this year.

After a drought, nitrogen that might normally have been taken up by a high-yielding crop or flushed away by rainfall remains in the soil. That leftover nitrogen could be available for next year’s crop, but only if:

A) we have a dry spring, or

B) farmers have made use of practices like cover crops or nitrification inhibitors that prevent nitrogen losses during the fallow season.

A wet year in 2013 following a dry year in 2012 (dark blue) caused nitrate concentrations in many central iowa streams to jump as much as 10 mg/L higher than usual (red). Figure from Van Metre et al. 2008

A drought in 2012 following by a wet spring in 2013 led to nitrate concentrations in excess of 20 mg/L in many rivers in Central Iowa. If we have a wet spring in 2021, we could see this happen again. As one scientific paper put it, “weather whiplash drives deterioration of water quality.”

“Weather whiplash” can also help explain the long-term trends I’ve been seeing in the South Skunk River and its tributaries: a decline in nitrate concentrations from 2005-2012, a big jump in 2013, and another decline over the past 7 years. I’ll walk you through my analysis.

Explaining nitrate concentrations in the South Skunk River

Technical details, feel free to skip: This data was collected by the City of Ames just upstream of wastewater treatment plant. The City has monitored the South Skunk River above and below its wastewater treatment plant almost every week since 2003! Flow is measured continuously at a few miles upstream USGS gage near S. 16th St. I’ve summarized nitrate concentrations and streamflow by season (Jan-Mar, Apr-Jun, Jul-Sep, Oct-Dec). At each step of the way, I apply a linear regression equation and graph the model residuals. Taken together, these three factors explain 59% of the variation. The effects of “weather whiplash” may extend beyond one year, since nitrate from some parts of the field may travel more slowly to streams via groundwater.

In a given quarter, nitrate concentrations in the South Skunk can be up to 10 mg/L higher than the long-term average, or as much as 10 mg/L lower. The following graphs show how much variation is left to explain after correcting for current weather, last year’s weather, and season.

Nitrate in the South Skunk is again declining after a sudden increase in 2013.
Low-flow conditions in 2011-2013 explain unusually low nitrate concentrations.
Wet springs following dry years explain unusually high nitrate concentrations.
Seasonal patterns explain some of the remaining variation.
  1. The lowest nitrate concentrations can be explained by streamflow: when the weather is dry and tiles aren’t flowing, nitrate levels in rivers taper off to the background levels seen in groundwater.
  2. The highest nitrate concentrations can be explained by weather over the previous 12 months: a wet period following a dry period will flush out nitrate that’s accumulated in the soil.
  3. After that, there’s still a seasonal pattern independent of rainfall: nitrogen is most susceptible to loss in spring when soils are bare and microbial activity picks up (April-June) and least susceptible when the maturing crop is using up the available nitrogen (July-Sept).
  4. Can some of the remaining pattern be explained by greater adoption of conservation practices in the watershed in the past 5 years? We hope so, but let’s see what happens next spring!

Too close to call

Too close to call

Disclaimer: This article is not about politics. PRI is a non-partisan organization and does not want to get drawn into a discussion about the election. My intent here is to use an example that’s fresh in our minds to illustrate a challenge for progress tracking in water quality.

Polls are not always accurate. If you didn’t know that before November of 2020, you do now.

There are plenty of parallels with water, so if you’re looking to water quality monitoring to tell you whether or not conservation efforts in your watershed or your state are succeeding, read on.

Bottom line: Short-term water quality trends are usually too close to call.

Quinnipiac University can’t talk to every eligible voter in Florida, so they surveyed 1,657 people the week before the election.

Similarly, it’s not practical to test water quality in a stream 365 days a year, so we often make do with just 12 days a year. There are sensors that can test nitrate or turbidity continuously during the ice-free months, but they’re not cheap.

The voting patterns of those 1,657 people won’t be perfectly representative of Florida. How close do they expect to be? Based on the sample size, Quinnipiac calculates a margin of error: in this case 2.4 percentage points. Talking to more people would reduce the margin of error, but not enough to be worth the cost. In this case, Biden’s lead appears to be outside the margin of error.

Support for candidatePoint estimate95% confidence interval
Biden47%44.6% to 49.4%
Trump42%39.6% to 44.4%

Similarly, the 12 days we test water quality won’t be perfectly representative of the year. How close can we expect to be? We can calculate a margin of error (here, the 95% confidence interval) around our water quality average. Did phosphorus decline in 2019? Too close to call!

Phosphorus in South Skunk RiverPoint estimate95% confidence interval
2019 average0.30 mg/L0.20 mg/L to 0.40 mg/L
2018 average0.36 mg/L0.26 mg/L to 0.46 mg/L

Oops! This poll missed the mark, and by more than the margin of error. Trump actually won Florida with 51.2 percent of the vote. Well, some errors are unavoidable. If sampling error were completely random, we’d expect about 5% of polls to miss by more than the margin of error. That’s what “95% confidence” means. However, according to a new study of 1,400 polls from presidential primaries and general elections, 40% of polls conducted a week before the election missed the mark by that much.

That’s because sampling error isn’t all random. People who ultimately voted one way may have been less likely to appear on the list of phone numbers, less willing to respond, less likely to say what they truly intended, or were more likely to have changed their mind in the final week. And then there’s undecided voters, who don’t always split evenly between candidates. Any of these things can skew the results. Pollsters try to correct for some of these things by weighting various demographic groups, but it doesn’t always work. For “margin of error” to mean what we think it means, according to Kotak and Moore, it would need to be at least two times wider.

Similarly, if monthly samples are not collected on a fixed day of the month, you might underestimate phosphorus or sediment load by planning your week to avoid getting wet, and over-estimate it by going out of your way to capture a sample during a storm. This challenge is well understood in environmental science and there are sampling strategies and equipment to get around it.

What’s not widely appreciated is just how big purely random sampling errors can be. I’ve read the literature and run my own numbers. Even with a 3 years of sampling, you’re lucky to get below a 20 percent margin of error. The problem is more severe for phosphorus and sediment (which move with runoff and vary a lot within a month) than nitrate (which moves with groundwater and drainage water, and is less variable).

Knowing this can help us set realistic expectations. As much as we’d like to know whether conservation efforts on the land are translating into improvements in water quality in the river, we’re not going to be able to tell the difference between a modest improvement and no improvement unless we sample often enough or long enough to bring down the margin of error. Figuring out whether this is worth doing, how to sustain it, and what other things we can learn from water monitoring has been the task of PRI and our partners around Story County working on a ten-year monitoring plan.

A final note. Have some sympathy for pollsters and scientists who are doing their best to base their findings on data, acknowledge the uncertainty in their conclusions, and strive to be less wrong. There are plenty of people on both sides of the aisle who confidently make predictions based on anecdotes, are wrong more often than not, and never admit it. 😉

Fall 2020 Water Quality Snapshot finds sensitive critters

Fall 2020 Water Quality Snapshot finds sensitive critters

Thirteen volunteers braved the cold on October 24 to test water quality in Squaw Creek, the South Skunk River, and their tributaries. For some, this was their 14th Fall Water Quality Snapshot. For others it was their first time doing stream monitoring. What we found defies easy categorization.

volunteers collecting invertebrates in Squaw Creek with a kick-net
Volunteers Diane Birt, Paul Readhead, Liz Calhoun, and Rick Dietz take turns brushing off rocks to capture bugs in our net. The water was freezing!

By some indicators, water quality in Squaw Creek was good. Since I wasn’t sure how many creeks would be flowing when I planned this event, I added bug collection to the agenda to keep us busy. Excuse me. Benthic macroinvertebrate sampling. We were pleased to find tiny stoneflies and mayflies. They’re good fish food, ask any fly fisherman! Excuse me. An important part of the aquatic food web. These insects also act as a sort of canary in the coal mine. They need water with a lot of dissolved oxygen so will be rare or missing in streams with too much pollution, murky water, or not much in the way of habitat.

Fun fact: while the adult mayfly is notorious for living only 24 hours, the juvenile form (naiad) lives in the stream for several years. If you’re curious what adult mayflies and stoneflies look like, I found some photos from our neighbors in Missouri.

Vials containing tiny mayflies and stoneflies

By some indicators, water quality in Squaw Creek and it’s tributaries was bad. As in, there’s poop in the water. Excuse me, fecal indicator bacteria. This month, E. coli bacteria in Squaw Creek continued to exceed the primary contact recreation standard, and College Creek jumped above secondary contact standard. I wondered if this spike might be due to accumulated… debris… being washed out of the storm sewers and off the landscape by the 1.25 inch rain we received Thursday and Friday, but the lab samples were actually collected on Wednesday Oct 21, so I’m not sure. Anyway, covid-19 is not the only reason I bring hand sanitizer to these events!

By some indicators, water quality was unusually dry this fall. Nitrate was too low to detect at 13 of 16 sites we tested. Under wetter conditions, as we had this spring or last fall, nitrate in these same streams was higher and differences due to landuse or conservation practices in the watershed become more apparent.

SiteWatershedFall 2020Spring 2020Fall 2019
Squaw Creek @ Duff AveRural and urban0105
Bluestem Creek @150th StRural2105
Glacial Creek @ U AveRural (with a constructed wetland)022
College Creek @ UniversityUrban022
Nitrate-N concentrations, in mg/L

Water quality is rarely all good news or all bad news. Citizen science can us a more complete picture.

Thanks to all our intrepid volunteers!

May showers bring awesome graphs!

May showers bring awesome graphs!

Last weekend’s rains (5-17-2020) provide a clear illustration of how water and nitrate make their way to Squaw Creek.

Squaw Creek at Brookside Park

How water reaches Squaw Creek after a rain

It started raining late Saturday night and stopped around 3AM Sunday. The rain gage outside my house in Ames showed 0.9 inches.  The water hitting my driveway and other paved surfaces in my neighborhood enters a storm sewer that goes directly to a tributary of Squaw Creek.  (In newer neighborhoods, the water would be slowed down by a pond or detention basin).  This runoff takes about an hour to make its way down Squaw Creek to the USGS stream gage at Lincoln Way.  In response to urban runoff and the rain that fell directly on the channel, we can see a quick rise in the water level, and quick fall.

Over the next 15 hours, Squaw Creek rose another foot as it was joined by water that fell as far away as Stratford and Stanhope. Other than urban areas, we probably didn’t see much runoff from the storm, which was relatively gentle and fell on soils that weren’t particularly steep or waterlogged. The fall in water level Sunday afternoon and Monday was more gradual, reflecting the release of water from drain tiles and groundwater.

Figure adapted from University of Michigan Extension

How nitrate reaches Squaw Creek after a rain

It’s well-known that tiles and ditches provide a direct pathway for nitrogen to leak out of the soil in corn and soybean fields.  Think of cover crops as a way to plug the leak, and bioreactors, saturated buffers, and wetlands as a bucket placed underneath.  You can watch the leak from last weeks’ storm with IIHR’s nitrate sensors.  This graph is from a sensor installed in Squaw Creek in Moore Park, where it enters Ames. (The colors are the reverse of what you’d expect–brown is streamflow, blue is nitrate).

The nitrate concentration in Squaw Creek fell from 5 to 4 mg/L overnight, diluted by direct precipitation and urban runoff, and then rose to 14 mg/L as water from drainage tiles made its way downstream.  As tile flow tapers off, nitrate concentrations gradually fall toward the lower levels seen in groundwater.

Nitrate drops as you move downstream

In Hardin County, there’s a nice set of three sensors that clearly showed what happens as water moves downstream during this storm.  Not every stream demonstrates this behavior, but many do.

At the tile outlet, nitrate levels are highest to begin with (10.9 mg/L) and show the sharpest increase, spiking to 18.3 mg/L by 5AM after some initial dilution.  Since the water takes some time to reach the next downstream sensor, Tipton Creek near Hubbard, the peak doesn’t happen until 8 PM, rising from 8.6 mg/L to 17.1 mg/L. Further downstream in the South Fork of the Iowa River, near New Providence, water is reaching the sensor from several tributaries, smoothing out some of the changes.  Nitrate rises from 4.5 mg/L Saturday night to a peak of 16.2 on Monday morning at 11:00.

There are several reasons why nitrate tends to decline as you move downstream.  First, tile systems drain mostly agricultural land, while a larger stream will also drain some field margins, pasture, and woodland.  Second, nitrate is removed from the water by algae, plants, and microbes.  Waterlogged organic matter, whether in a low spot in a field, a wetland, a stream bottom, or a woodchip bioreactor, is good habitat for denitrifying bacteria.  Third, many Iowa streams flow from northern Iowa southeast to the Mississippi River, or southwest to the Missouri River, and as you get into southern Iowa, the land  becomes hillier, tile drainage becomes less frequent, and pasture more common.

Tile drained fields lose a lot of nitrogen in spring.   That’s not news to anyone, but hopefully this helps you visualize and understand the process.

Update, 5/29/2020: We had even bigger rains the following week, but spread over several days, so the pattern was less clear.  We’re still seeing nitrate concentrations >10 mg/L in the rivers, and >15 mg/L at tile outlets.

2018 Impaired Waters List

The Iowa Department of Natural Resources is seeking public comment on the newly released draft impaired waters list.  Prairie Rivers of Iowa will be recommending that Squaw Creek and East Indian Creek be added to “Waters in Need of Further Investigation.”  We’ll also take this opportunity to try to demystify a topic that can be confusing, using examples from the South Skunk River watershed.

Every two years, the DNR is required to assess the available data to determine whether Iowa’s lakes, rivers, and wetlands are meeting their designated uses.  About half the rivers, and a bit more of the lakes have enough data to assess.  Since new waters are considered each cycle, the length of the impaired waters list doesn’t really tell us whether water quality is getting worse.  Since nutrients aren’t considered for most uses and the data used for the 2018 assessment is from 2014-2016, it doesn’t tell us whether the Iowa Nutrient Reduction Strategy is working.  What it tells us is the extent and severity of local water quality problems that have been officially vetted.

Recreational Uses

A river segment, lake, or reservoir that gets use by paddlers or where children play would be designated A1 (primary contact recreation use) or A3 (children’s recreational use).  To determine whether the water quality is good enough to support these uses, the DNR compares E. coli bacteria to the state standard (a geometric mean of 126 organisms per 100mL).  If the stream consistently exceeds the standard, that means there could be enough human or animal waste in the water to pose a health risk to anyone that swallowed some–a child splashing in the creek, or a paddler who tipped their canoe might get exposed to a waterborne illness.

Fully supporting:  None of the lakes or rivers in our watershed appeared on this list

Partially supporting: The South Skunk River above Ames was slightly impaired with high E. coli levels in one of three years.  Indian Creek near Maxwell, the upper part of Long Dick Creek in Hamilton County, Montgomery Creek in Boone County, Hickory Grove Lake in Story County, Lake Keomah and White Oak Lake in Mahaska County all have moderate E. coli problems.

Not supporting:  Prairie Creek in Boone County has consistently high E. coli levels.  The data was collected through an agreement between Iowa DNR and volunteers with the Squaw Creek Watershed Coalition.

Not assessed:  This includes Squaw Creek, East Indian Creek, McFarland Pond, and many others.

Wait a minute, Squaw Creek and East Indian Creek?  Didn’t we work with City of Ames and Story County Conservation to collect three years of monthly E. coli samples, starting during the assessment period?  Wasn’t the 2016 geometric mean ten times higher than the standard? Yes, but DNR never approved a quality assurance plan, so under Iowa’s Credible Data Law, they can’t use our data.  However, we will write to DNR to recommend that they add those streams to Iowa’s list of waters in need of further investigation (WINOFI).  We’re aware that bacteria cleanup plans for large rivers are difficult to do and are a low priority for the department, but we want people to be more aware of the health risks.

Aquatic Life Uses

The South Skunk River is  a warm water stream with a smallmouth bass fishery, so is designated B(WW-1).  Most of its perennial tributaries don’t have enough water or habitat for gamefish so are designated* B(WW-2) for other aquatic life.  Fish kill reports, biological monitoring of fish and invertebrates, and monitoring of dissolved oxygen and some toxic chemicals are used to assess whether water quality is good enough to support these uses.

*Adding to the confusion, smaller creeks are given a presumptive A1 B(WW-1) designation until a Use Attainability Assessment proves otherwise.  This change supposedly gives them extra protection, but I don’t see how that would work in practice.

Fully supporting: A lower segment of the South Skunk River in Mahaska County, Little Wall Lake, Hickory Grove Lake, lower Squaw Creek, and Montgomery Creek appear to have good enough water quality for a healthy aquatic community.  FYI: Fish aren’t bothered by high nitrate or E. coli.

Partially supporting:  The South Skunk River above Amesthe upper part of Squaw Creek, Long Dick Creek, upper Ballard Creek, and Walnut Creek are on the impaired waters list due to fish kills or a low quality fish or invertebrate community.

Waters in Need of Further Investigation:  Onion Creek, Worrell Creek, and College Creek had some low scores for fish or invertebrates, but DNR hasn’t worked out an appropriate threshold for these headwater creeks.  The lower part of Ballard Creek was removed from the impaired waters list and placed in this category when DNR discovered an error in the previous assessment.

Not Assessed: This includes several segments of the South Skunk River, Dye Creek, Clear Creek, Keigley Branch, West Indian Creek and many others.

Takeway message:

If a river was added to the impaired waters list, don’t assume it’s gotten dirtier.  Maybe it was always polluted and we hadn’t bothered to look.  And by the same token, if a river is not on the impaired waters list, don’t assume it’s clean.